In many learning or inference tasks human behavior approximates that of a Bayesian ideal observer, suggesting that, at some level, cognition can be described as Bayesian inference. However, a number of findings have highlighted an intriguing mismatch between human behavior and standard assumptions about optimality: People often appear to make decisions based on just one or a few samples from the appropriate posterior probability distribution, rather than using the full distribution. Although sampling-based approximations are a common way to implement Bayesian (...) inference, the very limited numbers of samples often used by humans seem insufficient to approximate the required probability distributions very accurately. Here, we consider this discrepancy in the broader framework of statistical decision theory, and ask: If people are making decisions based on samples—but as samples are costly—how many samples should people use to optimize their total expected or worst-case reward over a large number of decisions? We find that under reasonable assumptions about the time costs of sampling, making many quick but locally suboptimal decisions based on very few samples may be the globally optimal strategy over long periods. These results help to reconcile a large body of work showing sampling-based or probability matching behavior with the hypothesis that human cognition can be understood in Bayesian terms, and they suggest promising future directions for studies of resource-constrained cognition. (shrink)

In his article ‘God and Probability’, 1 Hugh Mellor introduced the notion of the ‘bridge-hand fallacy’, allegedly committed by those who think they can appeal to probabilities in arguments for design. I should like to give this notion another airing, partly because of its recent criticism in two interesting books - R. G. Swinburne' The Existence of God and D. J. Bartholomew's God of Chance - and partly because it seems worth asking how it fares in relation to the most (...) recent examples of design argument, namely those which appeal to the so-called ‘anthropic principle’ in cosmology. (shrink)

Does the recent success of Podemos and Syriza herald a new era of inclusive, egalitarian left populism? Because leaders of both parties are former students of Ernesto Laclau and cite his account of populism as guiding their political practice, this essay considers whether his theory supports hope for a new kind of populism. For Laclau, the essence of populism is an “empty signifier” that provides a means by which anyone can identify with the people as a whole. However, the concept (...) of the empty signifier is not as neutral as he assumes. As I show by analyzing the role of race in his theory, some subjects are constituted in a way that prevents their unmediated identification with the people. Consequently, Laclau’s view should be read as symptomatic of the problems with populist logic if its adherents are to avoid reproducing its exclusions and practice a more inclusive politics. (shrink)

B L Curtis; Learning and Intentionality, Journal of Philosophy of Education, Volume 5, Issue 1, 30 May 2006, Pages 105–121, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9752.

B L Curtis; Learning and Intentionality, Journal of Philosophy of Education, Volume 5, Issue 1, 30 May 2006, Pages 105–121, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9752.

A comparative study of Zumel's and other scholastic theories concerning the influence of the understanding or reason upon the will.--L. K. B.

There is now a rapidly expanding population of interlinked developmental biology databases on the World Wide Web that can be readily accessed from a desk‐top PC using programs such as Netscape or Mosaic. These databases cover popular organisms (Arabidopsis, Caenorhabditis, Drosophila, zebrafish, mouse, etc.) and include gene and protein sequences, lists of mutants, information on resources and techniques, and teaching aids. More complex are databases relating domains of gene expression to embryonic anatomy and these range from existing text‐based systems for (...) specific organs such as kidney, to a massive project under development, that will cover gene expression during the whole of mouse embryogenesis. In this brief article, we review selected examples of databases currently available, look forward to what will be available soon, and explain how to gain access to the World Wide Web. (shrink)

On August 29, 1995, the United States District Court for the Northern District of Ohio ruled that certain practices of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Ohio relating to the calculation of copayments on insurance claims violated provisions of ERISA, and thus BCBSO could be liable for unpaid benefits and breach of fiduciary duty ). According to BCBSO's Explanation of Benefits and Schedule of Benefits, beneficiaries were responsible for a 20 percent copayment for hospital charges, and the remaining 80 percent (...) of the Provider's Reasonable Charges would be paid by BCBSO. BCBSO negotiated with the hospitals to create discount agreements whereby the actual charge to BCBSO was less than 80 percent of the total amount of the hospital's charges. By this arrangement, BCBSO paid less than 80 percent of what patients were billed; concurrently, patients paid more than 20 percent of the amount ultimately paid to hospitals for their services. (shrink)

The greatest contemporary challenge in the arena of cognitive neuroscience concerns the relation between consciousness and the brain. Over recent years the focus of work in this area has switched from the analysis of diverse spatial regions of the brain to that of the timing of neural events. It appears that two conditions are necessary in order for neural events to become correlated with conscious experience. First, the firing of assemblies of neurones must achieve a degree of coherence, and, second, (...) reflexive (i.e. top-down, or reentrant) neural pathways must be activated. It does not, of course, follow that such neural activity causes consciousness; it may be, for example, that the neural activity formats the brain to interact with consciousness. The latter possibility is suggested by analysis of mystical texts suggesting that coherence and reflexivity constitute the conditions for the influx of “spirit.” Kabbalistic sources, for example, describe a hierarchy of “brains” in the human and divine realms through which the principles of coherence and reflexivity operate. Whilst the ontological assumptions of such a scheme place it beyond the realm of psychology, parallels with the picture deriving from the contemporary cognitive neuroscience of consciousness are striking. (shrink)

Another beginners' text, emphasizing the problem of the relation between ordinary language and formal logic. From an exceedingly simplified introduction to semiotics, it moves through an analysis of conventions of ordinary English discourse to a presentation of an elementary non-standard symbolic propositional, class and modal logic. A matrix method is used throughout, facilitating the use of the same symbols for class and propositional relations. Chapters are included on probability, Mill's inductive methods, and logic and scientific method. Abundant, typically dull exercises (...) are provided.--L. K. B. (shrink)